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Economics experts, data and various studies conducted across the globe envisage India and China to rule the world in the 21st century. For over a century the United States has been the largest economy in the world but major developments have taken place in the world economy since then, leading to the shift of focus from the US and the rich countries of Europe to the two Asian giants- India and China. The rich countries of Europe have seen the greatest decline in global GDP share, followed by the US and Japan with a decline of about 1%. Within Asia, the rising share of China and India has more than made up the declining global share of Japan since 1990. During the seventies and the eighties, ASEAN countries and during the eighties South Korea, along with China and India, contributed to the rising share of Asia in world GDP. According to some experts, the share of the US in world GDP is expected to fall (from 21% to 18%) and that of India to rise (from 6 % to 11% per cent in 2025), and hence the latter will emerge as the third pole in the global economy after the US and China.
By 2025 the Indian economy is projected to be about 60% the size of the US economy. The transformation into a tri-polar economy will complete by 2035, with the Indian economy only a little smaller than the US economy but larger than that of Western Europe. By 2035, India is likely to be a larger growth driver than the six largest countries in the EU, though its impact will be a little over half than that of the US. India, which is now the 4th largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity, will overtake Japan and become third major economic power within 10 years. |
